It's easy to question the logic of having a large family. Then spontaneous sing-a-longs happen and you get clarity. Love you Mia, Max, Miles and Dean.
Global Teacher Prize winner Nancie Atwell spoke at a dinner at CGI, shortly after a very deferential (to her) address by former President Bill Clinton. Nancie's work in creating space and encouragement of reading for all students is truly inspiring. Read more about her here.
In the midst of her address she quoted author Graham Green, saying:
“There is moment in every child’s life where a door opens and lets the future in.”
I hear and feel both the truth and beauty of this statement. And it happened to me so many times as a young person, shaping who I am and what I have become. To those who opened those doors, I am forever grateful:
- Age 7: Through happenstance and a great school administrator, I attended my first day of gifted education, where a group of three inspiring teachers taught 5 grades between them with no curriculum and little direction. From our group of 15 2nd graders came 3 high school valedictorians and several leaders in their chosen fields. I was challenged every day and learned to learn in the subsequent five years.
- Age 10: I met Mother Theresa, and had the opportunity to sing for her at a United Way fundraiser. Her goodness shined so brightly, despite knowing little of her work. Sixteen years later I stood at her grave and wept.
- Age 12: I traveled to Romania and the USSR on a goodwill trip with the All-American Boys Chorus. On that trip I was profoundly affected by the poverty of Romania and the... evil of Nicolae Ceaușescu. Even on our potemkin tour with government tour guides, the truth of this man and his government oozed wherever I turned. I became determined to never let that happen on my watch.
- Age 19: Despite speaking Spanish and traveling abroad extensively, I was called on my Mormon mission to Morristown, New Jersey. While a bit disappointed in the moment, I learned over those two years that no other place could have changed me so greatly. I spent most of those months in Patterson, Newark, Jersey City, and Union City, home to great poverty and related challenges. I left an Orange County California conservative, and returned with a far more left-leaning view on addressing poverty and drug issues.
- Age 21: After returning from my missionary work, I dove into the more self-focused pursuit of education, with a longing to do more. Through the happenstance of meeting Geoff Davis at a party, I learned of Grameen Bank and read the writing of Muhammad Yunus later that week until 4 o'clock in the morning. The very next week I had dropped my classes, quit my job, and moved to DC, and slept in someone's hallway so I could work at Grameen Foundation with Geoff and with Alex Counts, and later worked with Professor Yunus when he sponsored my Fulbright.
- Age 40 (today): The world continues to change, and I see new doors opening that show me the future. Some of it is inspiring and some of it inspires effort to improve. The advent of the Sustainable Development Goals and the plan for the next 15 years shows what is possible in a future that is bright.
Reposted from Facebook:
I can truly say that turning 40 has been the best birthday I can remember. I’ve been very reflective of what the last decade offered me, and I look forward with optimism to the future. But let me just say that I have the greatest wife. My dearest Maran helped me ring in my 5th decade with excitement, enthusiasm, and depth as we spent the last several days in NYC. Here are a few highlights in no particular order:
Being in New York for the formal adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals felt like being part of our shared future history. Congratulations to John McArthur, Kate Garvey, and all who were a part of that incredible effort.
I was stunned that Bill Clinton, standing just feet from me, kept making eye contact with me as he spoke passionately about education and the Global Teacher Prize. Turns out he couldn’t keep his eyes off my beautiful wife. Thanks Vikas for bringing them together.
Reconnecting with my dear friend Mark Vlasic led to a lovely, intimate discussion including UNESCO head Irina Bokova on the Timbuktu Renaissance following so much destruction
Tickets to two amazing plays reconnected me to my roots in theater and my love of the stage. Thanks Laura Penn for using your powers to get us the best seats in the house.
Making our way through the sea of humanity that was Global Citizen Fest, with Pearl Jam, Beyonce, Coldplay, Common, Sting, Ed Sheeran and more convening a crowd so that Joe Biden, Michelle Obama and so many more could share the message of the Sustainable Development Goals. Kudos to Hugh Evans for creating something both massive and special.
Attending a session at the United Nations on ending hunger by 2030, just a day after that goal was ratified by 193 countries, and feeling the energy behind this important need.
Enjoying a Wafel & Dinges with its inspiring creator Rossanna Figuera, who told me eating a wafel should be the best moment of your day. It was.
Standing on 51st street, looking up through the buildings, and watching the moon grow small and disappear. I felt at once small and great in this vast universe of ours.
Receiving a zen coloring book from Georgie Benardete, who always knows the book I need at the right moment in my life.
Meeting Ahmed Mohamed on the street and thanking him for making a clock heard ‘round the world.
Enjoying a rooftop party with dear YGL friends on a terrace 70 floors above Central Park. It had a 30-foot tree growing out of the garden.
And incredible meals with Sara Sutton Fell, Binta Niambi Brown, Dana T. Leong, Lutfey Siddiqi, Rajiv Pant, Lara Setrakian, Esteban Bullrich, Elaine Smith, Bruno Sánchez-Andrade Nuño, and so many more. You all truly made my birthday special.
Thank you Maran for making it all possible, and joining me as I become an older, and hopefully wiser, kinder, and more engaged, man.
A few weeks ago a young entrepreneur threw herself from an NYC rooftop. So sad to see someone lose sight of life. That said, I can relate to the emotional trauma of building a venture.
Also as I confer in confidence with various founders, I would say that the below statistics sound about right. Hug an entrepreneur today!
I have offered to a number of entrepreneurs the open door to confide in my confidentially about how they are really feeling. Dave Schappell once explained that "an entrepreneur is never aloud to have a bad day. "Everything is great!" is the only acceptable response." And it is true, or at least feels true. So, when times get tough or even before that, reach out.... To me, to someone you trust, to a stranger. It doesn't matter. Just reach out.
From the article
"Of the 242 entrepreneurs he surveyed, 49% reported having a mental-health condition. Depression was the No. 1 reported condition among them and was present in 30% of all entrepreneurs, followed by ADHD (29%) and anxiety problems (27%).
That's a much higher percentage than the US population at large, where about 7% identify as depressed. "
Update: I was very sad to read of the horrific accident in September involving a duck and a bus. I hope this light-hearted criticism posted earlier in the year isn't insensitive to the true problem: the safety of these vehicles.
I'm struck by the thorough nature of the pollution from the amphibious tourist assault vehicle known as The Ducks. On the corner of First and King this morning, I found myself enveloped in at least five kinds of pollution while trying to get to my office:
Sound: Must you play YMCA every time you pass my office?
Sight: Well, just look at them.
Air: I have no idea how much diesel is being consumed, but it certainly not done efficiently or cleanly.
Sea: This can't be good for our salmon.
Smell: See above.
But those affected aren't just the locals. The second-hand recipients are all visitors to Seattle who locals lump in with Duck riders, enveloping them in a personal rejection commonly known as the Seattle Freeze. Why do locals seem closed off? I blame the Ducks. Why do locals mock tourists? I blame the Ducks. Why didn't Russell give it to Lynch? I blame the Ducks.
I spent some time this weekend look at Athos, which is a wearable sensor suit in the form of compression workout gear. Basically, by donning a fitted shirt and shorts, I can get direct and immediate feedback on how well I am using each muscle group while I am working out. The gear has a mini computer that collects the information and delivers it to the phone, but the suit is apparently not weighed down with wires but rather fits normally. While doing squats, one can see whether all of the right muscle groups are working at the right amount.
I am a cheater. I'll just admit that now. I cheat all the time while lifting (which I do far less often than I should). I use my back, I don't isolate the appropriate muscle, I drop a shoulder. I'm terrible at this. I try to lift the right weight so I won't do this, but on the whole I am willing to cheat. Athos would be the perfect partner in getting me to be honest about what I'm doing, seeing that progress in real time. It also opens up the opportunity for remote personal training. Super interesting tech.
Next up in this field of interesting is TempTraq, which today started taking orders of its one-time use, 24-hour, bluetooth-enabled, stick-on thermometer. For $25 you can put a soft sticker under an infant's arm and get constant tracking of fevers, along with alerts as needed. I remember being a parent and waking up children to take their fevers. It looks like peace of mind for parents and possibly also life saving for the children. Looking forward to seeing this live.
I am always inspired by those who break out of their fields, trades or mediums to find new areas to influence and be influenced by. My entire life has been a zigzag of wonder that looks like a meander that had purpose. But I never knew the end game of my zags or the impact of my zigs. I just knew I should pursue them at the fastest speed possible.
One who does this better than any of this is the inspiring Drue Kataoka. My friend Drue is an artist of great success who moves between media with ease and can create art from ink, dye, glass, and even ones and zeros. Her latest installation, shown at TEDWomen 2015, is a piece of digital art that intends to unite us all around the subject of infant mortality. I can scan my hand with my phone, and have it added to the turning beauty that is Touch Our Future. Have a look, add your hand, consider on the subject, and drink it in. Maybe it's time I pick up a paint brush.
Amazon.com announced today that it is offering same-day Prime delivery free of charge on over a million item shipped to 500 cities and towns. I'm not sure how many true markets that will be, but Seattle is one of them, and that's what matters most to me a the moment.
Same-day delivery is a simple concept (difficult to fulfill, but easy to understand), but the profound way this will change life and the fate of local retail is astounding. On the day of Amazon.com's acquisition of Shelfari, I became a good Amazonian and signed up for AWS (primarily for S3 laptop backup, which was a pain back then) and Prime. My first order using Amazon Prime was for lightbulbs and paperclips. Two days later they were at my door. I had 3 dark lamps in my house and never had paperclips that didn't come from work, and yet the need was not great enough to merit a trip to a drugstore. So in the dark I sat with messily unclipped papers everywhere. But prime changed that for me. I now have what I need in just a couple short days.
The introduction of free same-day delivery, however, will be just as transformative for me as my first Prime membership, but it will be far more transformative for retail ecosystem. Some thoughts:
There is no such thing as a shopping list anymore
We are now in a think-to-purchase society where you can buy nearly anything and have it on your doorstep. But we still build shopping lists for Trips to the store. This is the "I'm going to drive 30 minutes out to Target, let me look around the house, rack my brain, and otherwise pour out all of my good needed, so that I don't have to drive out there again the next day." That no longer exists. I need lightbulbs? I buy light bulbs. Oh, this recipe needs cinnamon? Click to cinnamon. And it turns out that buying it on Amazon is just about as easy as writing a digital shopping list. Open app, say what you're looking for, select and buy. Or if you happen to own an Amazon Echo, then this just became far too easy.
Same day means 4 hours
When we say same day, it's really more of a 4-to-6 hour timespan from order to doorstep. It could of course be longer, but in most cases this is what you're talking about. That means when you're thinking about things you need before work or on your lunch hour, those items will likely beat you home. And you save yourself the hour of stopping at that shop that's on the way, let alone the one that's out of the city (a reality of life in Seattle).
A fun story: My three boys, aged 5 to 10, approached me each with a wad of currency: $32.80 each on Sunday morning. They had decided together that they wanted to buy the latest Skylanders game, had figured out what it cost, and had brought me the full amount, which for one of our boys comprised his life savings. The fact that they did it together and worked cooperatively warmed my heart. So I picked up my phone to buy it. I saw that same day delivery was available, so I chipped in the $5.99 and we were done. The boys were super excited, got dressed for church and we rolled out. When we returned from church, there it was... on the doorstep... ready to play. It was delivered in 3 hours to our door, and my boys played together until we had to forcibly pry them away.
Amazon will be in your neighborhood all day long (and not UPS)
An interesting thing about same day delivery is that we will all begin to order more types of goods that we used to buy elsewhere. We also will be ordering items 2 to 7 days per week, since we are no longer making shopping lists (see above). So that truck will roll through our neighborhoods every day. And with predictive analytics goods will be loaded on trucks based on our past behavior, based on behaviors of the next neighborhood over, based on what we peruse or put in our carts (if you actually use your cart, I don't), and based on any number of data points: weather, traffic, birthdays, day of week, proximity to holidays, and so forth. This means that from time to time a item will be purchased that is already on your neighborhood truck, and it will show up at your door 15 minutes later. This will happen soon, if not at the start. But UPS is not currently set up for this. Amazon Fresh is. UPS could certainly move in this direction, but it would be a different model of service than has been done heretofore. So Amazon, a subsidiary, or a tightly controlled parter/vendor will begin to roll Amazon-only trucks for all types of goods. This is already true for Amazon Fresh, but it will become more viable in more markets and neighborhoods due to this Prime change. I predict that within 3 years the only Amazon goods that UPS will deliver will be those outside of the 1-2 million goods Amazon will deliver same day itself, those marketplace goods not fulfilled by Amazon, and those that are too heavy or bulky for them to want to deliver themselves.
Infrequent but important retailers are now obsolete
We have been predicting the death of brick-and-mortar retail for 2 decades now, and of course it will not truly not die... yet. But there are many key and important forms of retail in our lives that just took a hit. A short list includes: drugstores, office supply stores, light hardware (nails, picture hangers, tools... basically not lumber or large goods), home goods, and even grocery stores. They should all be put on notice. If I don't NEED to drive to your parking lot, find what I need, wait in line, pay, (give you my phone number... ugh), and then pack everything to my car, I won't do it. My need is for the goods and not for your "retail experience".
And the net of this point is that commercial retail real estate is going to have a shake up, with massive tracks of land with stores and parking lots will disappear, perhaps leaving room for the fleet of vehicles and mini distribution centers to occupy the vacuum.
Building on a previous post regarding marketing ROI, this article makes a case for a doing away with old models of marketing investment.
Given the shifts in digital marketing in recent years, what is needed is a new model that pushes through the barriers of the Old Model of advertising in marketing services and moves into the social world. Old Model methods involve media spend in a certain period that have zero residual benefit. Social World marketing creates returns in the immediate term and also in the long term through creating social assets, the durable value created through social activities that will benefit the brand over time. So the Old Model – this has actually already been covered above, but it produces zero residual benefits once the spend is done. This is different than the social model, which actually creates the long-term benefit, so current measures of measuring return on investment and marketing don’t apply.
The return on social media investments must capture this durable value as well as its immediate returns. This model, which we call Social ROI, provides the true financial returns for large investments brands are making in social media dollar for dollar, Euro for Euro. Given that your investment in social media is being applied toward both your social balance sheet and social earnings, let us outline both for you. So that will come a little bit later.
The Social ROI, though, needs to have everything tie back to a financial return. This is dollars, real dollars, thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of dollars that are being invested in something that is very early stage. This is the early days of radio or the early days of television or the early days of the internet when money flows in and we’re kind of unsure as to what the returns actually are because we can’t measure them in the exact same way as we can other mediums, yet we can.
But these dollars need to really be tied back to sales. You can have a short-term period where one experiments in order to say have a seat at the table so you can experiment and get to understand. Think of it as R&D dollars in a new medium, but the time is far gone for looking at social media as research and development. We are now more than a decade since Friendster came on the scene. We have gone through a My Space era, a Facebook era.
And now we’re moving into a completely social internet where the entire world is networked together and their actions and their inactions and their preferences are being expressed in a highly organized, tightly coupled way that is helping us learn more and more about them. And it’s time for us to pounce and to actually turn this great asset and this great phenomenon into dollars.
So let’s talk about two different things. There’s the social balance sheet and there’s the social earnings statement. So this theory of understanding returns on investment comes directly out of financial models. There are two ways that when money is spent by a company, there are two ways in which it can be accounted for.
One is to expense it. You buy something. You spend money on advertising. You have a travel expense. You buy some advertising. You hire your employees. Those are all expenses. You take their wages, you expense them all and it goes against your revenue. And so you have money that came in, expenses that you put out and then you have some sort of net income at the bottom of that.
Now there’s also the ability to capitalize money that is spent and make it an asset. So if you buy a building or a machine or furniture or you invest in a particular technology or buy a company, those can all be assets that show up on your balance sheet. So if I spend a million dollars buying a machine, it doesn’t have to be expensed in this one period, this one quarter when I made that investment. It’s going to give me returns over some long period of time.
So instead, I can capitalize it on my balance sheet and then slowly depreciate it over the appropriate time by pulling out some percentage and expensing that percentage over the useful life of that particular object. This is what we propose doing with social media, to take both the short-term view in terms of a social earnings statement, but then also a long-term view in terms of the social balance sheet.
Your social balance sheet is the sum statement of your long-term investments in social media. It’s comprised of social assets and social equity. Social Assets are those investments that have value over time, such as fans and followers on various social networks, digital assets you will use for more than three months, brand champions, influencer relationships and long-term changes in search results. Each of these are multi-month to multi-year assets that can influence topline results for your company. In other words, their value lives far beyond the period in which you made the investment. So let’s talk about each one of these areas and understand how they are an asset and also how we should treat them.
This is a first blog post in a series I think of as SocialROI, but more broadly speaking will lay out my thoughts on how the rise of the social Internet and the democratization of publishing has created a world in which not only marketing has changed, but the measurement of marketing has also changed. Investments in marketing can have long-term impact, but that must be properly understood an measured. I hope to properly explore that here.
The Need for Investment in the Long and Short Term
While the effect of advertising is by and large felt in the period in which it’s displayed, social media is different. Advertising affects an audience for a specific time. You come up with a creative campaign. You develop that campaign across print, radio, TV and other channels and then you spend money to place that creative in front of someone’s face. And they are able to respond during the period in which you are accomplishing it and during the period in which you are advertising it.
But beyond that it has very little residual value. When the billboard comes down, when the digital ad is no longer displaying, when the TV ad has ceased, very rarely is there any additive value. Very rarely is there anything residual that’s left. When you fill up the bathtub with money and the drain runs out, the residue that is left from a paid media campaign is essentially zilch.
But enter social media and you actually end up with some different characteristics. Social media, while one could simply advertise on a social platform such as Facebook or My Space or Pinterest, the effects of social media really do have a significant residue. People tweet and that tweet lives on. It’s there permanently, not only in the person’s profile, but available to Google searches, Bing searches, available in someone’s history when it is mined and searchable using social media search tools.
When you run a campaign that’s on your Facebook, it may result in a Facebook fan, someone choosing to follow your conversation and yield to ongoing opt-in marketing. It’s a permissions-based marketing system. And so while you may present a message to someone and they may click and they may buy or they may go down to a retail store and purchase, you also have an ongoing relationship with many of them because they’ve chosen to become your fan.
There’s also other value that’s created, which goes beyond your campaign and lives longer than the period. Someone may make a recommendation, which is I like this. I want to buy this. I own it and it is good. It is something that I want or prefer or something that I hate or something that I’m going to take a look at, something that I’m reading and it lives on beyond that period because it’s said and that expression is heard by people significantly more impactful than if they hear it through media.
So when they say I bought a Sonos media player and I love it and it’s the best thing I’ve ever bought. And it’s worth the money, even though it’s three times more expensive than other options, it’s the best. That recommendation will live on in the recipient’s memory or it may when the person comes time to make a purchase decision for audio equipment, they may come back to the person who made that expression and say, hey. I know that you liked something, the thing, a Sonos. Is that still what you would recommend? And then through that relationship the person is able to have disproportionate power in their recommendation because they have that relationship.
So we have fans, Facebook fans. We have followers, such as Twitter. We have subscribers who may be subscribed to a blog feed or a YouTube video channel. We have digital assets that live on. So these are things that live on beyond the period.
So we have digital assets such as a micro site that you create that goes on and keeps living or a forum in which people can share their ideas about what is good and what is wrong. And it creates long-term available, not just to the people who are viewing it at the time, but to people who are searching for something in the future. It could be a Facebook tab that allows you to shop or to share or to compete and it may be something that is ongoing. Now there are of course short-term digital assets and we’ll cover that in the future, but there are these digital assets that live on beyond the short term.
Then there’s champions. A champion is different than an influencer. A champion is someone who loves your brand, loves your products, and wants to come to your aid. They could be influential, but in most cases they’re regular people who are willing to in a time of crisis come to your aid and defend you at a time of opportunity to cheer you on. At a time of something new, such as a product launch or a launch of a campaign, they’re able to get the message out and share it with those who they love. It is incredible to understand how much the words of 10 or 15 people can do to completely change the direction of a conversation and the comments on a blog post at Huffington Post.
A small number of champions can do a lot of good. A large number of real champions can do incredible things on behalf of a brand and those relationships are ongoing. They’re not immediate to build. It’s a relationship that you build over time with champions through developing a compelling champions program, but they are an asset that lives on and on beyond the period in which you are investing in acquiring them.
Another area is influencers. Influencers are those that have a disproportionate amount of influence in an audience based on the fact that they have a particular readership or followership of people who are listening to them or who are subscribed to them. It is a group of people who may have general influence over the internet, meaning they’re one of their most read bloggers or most followed people on Twitter or they may, and this is more likely, have significant influence in a particular topic area.
So if the topic area is college level humor or a particular area of technology, these people are highly influential in this topic area, which means that people link to them, discuss them, include them, share their stories, tweet them out and otherwise are referential and deferential to them in the conversation. And they influence both opinion as well as the topics that are discussed. So to recap, fans and followers, subscribers, digital assets, champions and influencers are among the long-term assets that are created that live well beyond the period in which you do the activity.
So a proper investment in social media involves long-term and short-term investing. So we want to capture the impact of today’s phenomenon and growth while also building for the future. So anything that is purely asset building that only builds long-term value may not actually capture the needs to actually drive revenue in today’s period, driving sales. It may be that there are phases where investing in the long-term assets is absolutely the most important thing that needs to be done at this moment. And it may be the only effective thing that one can do.
Build your followership. Build your thought leadership. Build relationships with champions. Identify your influencers and build relationships with them. And it may be that in order to do that, you need to build the communities. And then once they’re built, then you can more effectively drive a current period time or current period returns where you’re actually driving real sales or real communication style goals that deliver real value to the brand in the current period.